How to apply Moving Average in Forecasting?

An online bookstore has been tracking its weekly eBook sales over the past six months.

They have used a 4-week Moving Average to smooth out the data for forecasting. Based on this Moving Average analysis, consider the following two inferences about their future eBook sales:


  • Inference I: The Moving Average trend over the last few weeks shows a steady increase. It can be inferred that eBook sales will continue to rise steadily in the coming weeks.

  • Inference II: The Moving Average indicates a consistent pattern every four weeks. It can be inferred that there will be a sharp increase in sales precisely in the fourth week of the next month.

Choose the option that accurately identifies the correct and incorrect inference.

Choose the closest answer: