What is the difference between early and later phases of retention?

An online consumer app needs to maintain at least 5% of a cohort as active users at the end of the first year to be considered viable.

Given the following scenarios with different early retention rates, calculate which scenario achieves this threshold:


  • Scenario 1: 10,000 initial users with a Month-1 retention of 35% and a subsequent monthly retention rate of 85%.

  • Scenario 2: 10,000 initial users with a Month-1 retention of 15% and a subsequent monthly retention rate of 85%.
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